Bitcoin Rebounds to $82K After Trump Rules Out Iran Strike as U.S. Spot ETF Outflows Mount

Trump’s Iran Pledge Cools the Oil Shock

The sell-off began after Axios reported on October 7 that the Pentagon had told U.S. Central Command to prepare for a possible return to major combat operations in Iran. West Texas Intermediate crude futures jumped from about $89 to $93.20 a barrel, while Treasury yields moved back toward their highest levels since 2002. That combination typically weighs on risk assets such as Bitcoin.

On Thursday, Trump wrote on Truth Social that no strike would take place before the midterms. He described talks with Tehran as productive but said the U.S. blockade would remain fully in force. Crude dropped to around $90.70, and Bitcoin, which had slipped to about $80,300, steadily recovered toward $82,000. Ether, XRP and Solana trimmed their losses as well.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs Post Their Biggest Outflow Since June

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs shed $487.1 million on Wednesday, the largest daily net outflow since June 25, according to SoSoValue data. The figure sat roughly 2.1 standard deviations below the 90-day average, which has been about $92 million of daily inflows. Another $244 million left the funds on Thursday, while XRP products were the only crypto ETFs to attract fresh money.

The shift follows a strong stretch. The funds took in about $2.65 billion in September, but flows have turned choppy since. Year to date, net inflows total just $717 million, a thin cushion after cumulative flows bottomed at a $5.76 billion outflow in July. Since launching in January 2024, the funds have attracted $57.33 billion net.

Liquidations Add to the Pressure

The slide triggered roughly $1 billion in liquidations across crypto derivatives, with ether positions wiped out at about six times the rate of Bitcoin. Total crypto market capitalization stood near $2.86 trillion on Friday morning, down about 2.5% over 24 hours, while the Crypto Fear & Greed Index eased to 59 from 64, still in “greed” territory.

Key Levels Traders Are Watching

Analysts see $81,000 as immediate support and $82,000 as resistance. A drop below roughly $80,300 would raise downside risk. FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich noted that the $80,500–$81,500 zone contains last month’s local highs and the 50-day moving average, making it an easy target for sellers.

On the upside, Giottus CEO Vikram Subburaj said Bitcoin needs to reclaim $83,300 and then $85,500, backed by stronger ETF inflows, before high leverage looks safer. The $87,000 level has capped rallies since the advance stalled on September 21.

What It Means for the Market

Bitcoin’s bounce shows how sensitive the market remains to U.S. foreign-policy headlines, oil prices and bond yields. With ETF demand fading just as macro risk rises, price action is likely to hinge on whether fund flows stabilize and whether Washington’s diplomacy with Iran holds. Prices are indicative and this article is not financial advice.